PIVOT 20/20: Planning in Volatile & Opportunistic Times

We first introduced PIVOT (Planning in Volatile & Opportunistic Times) back in 2020 as the world grappled with the COVID-19 pandemic. To say that was a volatile time for businesses around the world is an understatement. Thankfully, the global emergency of the pandemic is in the rearview, but that doesn’t mean volatility and uncertainty is a thing of the past.

That’s why we’re refreshing PIVOT 20/20 with a new edition for 2025. It’s already been a turbulent year and we’re only halfway through it! Today we’re facing economic uncertainties and disruptions across a wide range of sectors. Instead of just waiting to see what happens, why not prepare your business to overcome these challenges?

PIVOT 20/20 helps you recognize your firm’s current situation, anticipate potential issues, and envision the right key indicators so you can plan for different possible futures.

Ready to discover how to PIVOT your business successfully? It only takes four steps.

Four Key PIVOT Steps

In uncertain times, it’s crucial to prepare your business to respond to whatever emerges. Increased preparation leads to increased confidence, alertness, and proactive agility, which means you’ll be even better at navigating potential turbulence.

The first step of our PIVOT approach is to assess your current markets, suppliers, and business: What is true today? What is happening now? Next, anticipate different futures—and the strategies and key actions needed to win in each version. Third, analyze the financial implications these futures could have on your business, and determine the key decisions to be financially successful in each. The final step is to navigate the emerging future by tracking leading indicators and strategically responding.

Let’s take a closer look at each step.

Step 1. Assess

Start to PIVOT by performing a current state assessment to gain a clear, objective, and comprehensive understanding of your business’s present situation. Only with a realistic picture of the present can you lay a solid foundation for envisioning potential futures.

Consider these elements as you assess your current situation:

• Your Business. What do you stand for? What are your critical needs, strengths, and vulnerabilities? Can you define your company’s culture, talent, and leadership? What new opportunities can you identify?

• Demand. What are your markets, customers, and competition?

• Supply. What are your supply chains, labor, and talent?

• The Future. What are your leading indicators? How can you position your company for success?

Fortunately, you don’t have to (nor should you) assess everything on your own. Ask key leaders and experts at your company to address relevant areas early on. Then broaden the conversation so your whole team can assess, analyze and integrate all the data into a single unified understanding of what’s true about the business today.

This broad, initial assessment will provide clarity about where your business is now and also help you anticipate what potential futures could be in store.

Step 2. Anticipate

This step is all about scenario planning. Start by asking your team to proactively envision several distinctly different—yet plausible—potential futures and then develop strategies for how your firm will survive and thrive in each one.

For each future, strategize by selecting two variables—uncertainties that most dramatically affect your company’s future. These two variables will help you plot four distinct futures. By visualizing these futures, your team can describe plausible conditions for each one, because each variable changes how that future unfolds.

As they plan, your team will uncover positive strategies and sensible steps that will give your firm advantages in multiple different futures.

With these strategies in mind, your team can begin to articulate what Best Case, Worst Case, and Likely Case scenarios look like—and the responses required to succeed regardless of which scenario unfolds.

Having a crystal ball sure would be nice, but the next best thing is to proactively imagine and then plan for different plausible futures.

Step 3. Analyze

After the team specifies the Best Case, Worst Case, and Likely Case scenarios, it’s time to analyze each one to assess the financial profit and loss (P&L) and the cash flow (CF) implications, impacts, and requirements.

It’s best to build a financial model that enables the team to (1) change different external and internal financial variables (such as pricing, interest rates, stocking levels, and investment capital), and then (2) iterate to refine the strategies and actions for each Case. Financial modeling can also help the team really understand key trade-offs and see difficult decisions coming (like making layoffs) well before actual choices need to be made.

Step 4. Navigate

Once the firm has a solid grip on its Best, Worst, and Likely Cases, it’s time to navigate your pathway forward by looking ahead at what’s coming and then acting.

To look ahead effectively, track the critical leading indicators that provide credible data about which future is actually emerging. Ideally, the team will look at, track, and consider leading indicators each month and, along with other relevant data and insights, assess again which Case is most likely emerging.

The second practice your team should undertake regularly. Determine what, if any, new decisions or actions are warranted—especially over the next 30, 60, and 90 days—and then act on them.

Prepare Your PIVOT to Seize Better Outcomes - Regardless of Which Future Shows Up

Given the high levels of today’s volatility and uncertainty, the future is sure to surprise. Fortunately, your team can proactively and confidently navigate through this... In fact, their ability to do so will steadily improve as they continue to assess current realities, anticipate future possibilities, analyze implications, and navigate whatever is incoming.

With PIVOT’s four steps, you can position your company to both survive current turbulence and thrive no matter what the future brings. Empower your team to pivot to better outcomes and navigate whatever the “new normal” might be.

Interested in some help with this? Contact us to request our free interactive PIVOT 20/20 Guidebook. This resource supports leadership teams in assessing, anticipating, analyzing, and navigating different futures. And if you’d like some additional guidance, we can walk you through the PIVOT 20/20 Guidebook step by step and answer your questions.

Plan for a better tomorrow. Shoot us a message today at loch@shepherdadvisors.com

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